Rich Harden Have Signed with Texas
Harden's swinging strike rate is less trendy, partially due to the lack of data points in 2006-7. However, Harden had established a 11% rate in 2003-5 and was at 15% both of the prior two seasons. He would probably demolish Texas' hitters. Harden is also going to walk a good number of fellows. Interestingly enough, Harden's tendency to throw strikes is no worse than Lackey's, both hitting the zone about half the time. Harden is much more often to throw that first pitch for a ball though, but again, that's part of the deal with high strikeout pitchers.
He is also more of a fly ball pitcher than Lackey. Again, Harden is about the strikeouts so pitching up in the zone is part of that most of the time. All of this combines to give us the overall picture of Harden to Lackey, way more strikeouts, a few more walks and a few more fly balls. While Lackey's tRA* floated around 4.4, Harden's is around 4.1 though that came in a less offensive league. The difference between the two in terms of those figures is negligible. CHONE is slightly more bearish, also projecting Harden to be equal to Lackey in performance level, but Lackey's clear inferior in durability.
Even accounting for Harden's higher catastrophic injury risk, he grades out as being worth $12 million or so per year. To compare them directly, Harden's fair value over a four year deal would likely be around 4/44 compared to Lackey's 4/52. That Harden's health knocked that 4/44 down to 1/7.5 with an $11.5 million option is what made him a great target. An opportunity potentially (we don't know what went on, there may have been nothing reasonable Jack Z could have done) missed here and that the Rangers signed him makes it all the more painful.